The Hormuz Hypothesis – What If the U.S. Navy Isn't in a Hurry to Reopen Hormuz? (gcaptain.com)

The article argues that the key constraint on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not physical factors like minesweepers, but the U.S. ability to make shipping transits viable—especially through war-risk insurance and related federal “backstop” arrangements. It claims that insurance providers’ war-risk coverage pullbacks effectively turned Hormuz access into an on/off switch controlled by Washington, limiting how quickly ships can pass without U.S. coordination. The author then suggests that if the U.S. chooses not to rush a naval reopening, it could pressure European and other stakeholders to accept broader U.S. maritime policy demands, using a historical “Earnest Will” style model as an analogy.