The Intelligence Failure in Iran (theatlantic.com)

The Atlantic argues that U.S. intelligence on Iran before the war was largely accurate—indicating Iran was unlikely to have a near-term nuclear capability but would retaliate by targeting Gulf energy and potentially move to control the Strait of Hormuz. The article contends the larger failure was Trump’s decision to disregard or misrepresent those assessments, leading to predictable regional and economic blowback. It draws parallels to the Iraq WMD case, saying this time the intelligence itself “got it right,” but policy choices turned it into a costly quagmire.