Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating (convexly.app)

Convexly is a decision-tracking and calibration tool that lets founders log quick predictions (with confidence levels and optional stakes) and then measures how well their probabilities match outcomes. It uses Brier scores and calibration diagnostics, and offers pattern insights like overconfidence by category and upside-to-downside “asymmetric bet” analysis. The post also describes a short calibration quiz, a free tier for basic tracking, and a roadmap for reporting, integrations, and team/enterprise features.